The domestic auto market, which has begun to drive higher and lower, has entered the sprint phase of the last quarter. Its strong sales momentum has not diminished.
In September of this year, domestic auto production and sales doubled 1.3 million, and the production and sales of autos from January to September had doubled over 9.6 million. On October 20th, China also ushered in the production line of the 10 millionth car this year. The market unanimously believes that the automobile market in the fourth quarter will continue to maintain a strong sales trend. The Chinese auto market will surpass the US market to win the world's first "pole position."
This year's domestic auto market is booming, the tax incentives for the purchase of small-displacement autos, the trade-in of cars, and the stimulating effects of auto-to-country policies have contributed. A number of industry experts said that in order to maintain the sustained development of the auto market, relevant stimulus policies are expected to continue after the expiration, and new policies for auto consumption credit and used vehicle circulation market are also expected to be introduced next year.
Sales are expected to exceed 13 million during the year
As the European and American auto markets have been busy “healing up†the financial crisis this year, the domestic auto market has risen in contradiction and has repeatedly broken sales records.
According to the statistics of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in September, the passenger car market showed an explosive growth, with sales exceeding 1 million vehicles in the month, a year-on-year increase of more than 80%, and monthly sales reaching a record high. From January to September, the cumulative sales volume of passenger cars was 7.241 million, an increase of 41.90% year-on-year, an increase of 30.54 percentage points from the same period of last year. The sales of self-owned brand passenger cars achieved 3.1977 million units in January-September, which accounted for almost half of the total passenger car sales.
"This year, the auto market's 'Golden 9 Silver 10' has already started in August. After entering the market in September, the popularity of car purchases is still continuing to increase." Guo Yan, Business Information Manager of Beijing Beichen Yayuncun Automotive Trading Market Center, told reporters, "Q4. The boom in the automotive market will continue."
The auto market across the country has benefited from this year's sales boom. According to data provided by Beichen Yayuncun Automotive Trading Market Center, in September, Wuhan Zhuyeshan Automobile Market sold 3,775 vehicles, up 33% year-on-year; Hangzhou Automobile City sold 4,333 vehicles, an increase of 14.7% year-on-year; Chongqing Automobile Expo Center sold a total of various types of goods. With 3,562 passenger cars, the total sales volume of Shenzhen Dongdu Checheng was 1,444, both of which achieved significant growth.
With the improvement of the macroeconomic environment and related policies, the commercial vehicle market has also seen negative growth from July. In the first three quarters, commercial vehicle production and sales volume were 2,456,800 and 2,421,200, respectively, representing an increase of 17.35% and 15.59% year-on-year.
According to statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, from January to September, the top ten commercial vehicle sales companies ranked in order: Beiqi Foton, Dongfeng, FAW, Jianghuai, Chongqing Chang'an, Jinbei shares, CNHTC, Jiangling, Kama and SAIC-GM-Wuling. , Sales of 437,000 vehicles, 316,600 vehicles, 212,400 vehicles, 151,000 vehicles, 120,400 vehicles, 119,200 vehicles, 97,500 vehicles, 80,400 vehicles, 77,300 vehicles, and 68,200 vehicles, respectively, with the vast majority of companies increasing More than 10% faster.
"From January to September, car sales increased by more than 30% year-on-year," said Luo Lei, deputy secretary-general of the China Automobile Dealers Association, at the "Economy, Technology, and Culture" Automotive Development Forum in 2009. In the strong quarter, according to the past laws, the total sales volume of the domestic automobile market this year is expected to exceed 13 million.â€
"According to Xinhua's statistical model for the automotive market, domestic vehicle sales this year will exceed 13 million vehicles, or even nearly 14 million vehicles." Lang Xuehong, deputy general manager of Xinhua Automotive Marketing Solutions, provided technical evidence for Luo Lei.
Is the auto market extremely hot tomorrow?
This year's booming auto market has greatly enhanced the confidence of auto companies. After many companies have raised their sales targets for the year and are planning to increase production capacity.
On July 10, FAW Mazda Automobile Sales Co., Ltd. announced that it will increase Mazda6's annual sales target from 52,000 units at the beginning of the year to 78,000; FAW Toyota will increase its sales target for 2009 to 400,000 units from 380,000 units issued at the beginning of the year; Beijing Hyundai also increased its annual sales target from 360,000 units to 400,000 units.
In addition, the Dongfeng Nissan Huadu new plant project was launched in August, Audi's new digital workshop was put into production in September, and Beijing Hyundai's third plant project is also under preparation.
However, just as car prices were cautious at the beginning of this year and the auto market was out of stock, the continuous expansion of enterprises since the auto market was booming has also caused concern among the industry: Will there be excess production capacity? Is hot car consumption overdrawn tomorrow?
“At present, the auto market does have some degree of advance consumption.†Luo acknowledged that there is a trend of overdrawing future consumption in the hot auto market, but he also stated that “the Chinese auto market has entered a period of rapid development and the auto market will remain in place next year. The trend of growth will only show a certain drop in the growth rate. The strong demand in the auto market is long-term, and it is not necessary to worry too much about the decline in the growth rate of the auto market next year."
"The central government's requirement is that the auto market will grow by 10% next year and at least 14 million vehicles will be sold next year," Zhang Xiaoyu, executive vice president of the China Machinery Industry Federation and chairman of the China Association of Automotive Engineers, said in an interview earlier this year.
Lang Xuehong predicts that according to the Xinhuaxin statistical model, the total sales volume of the domestic automobile market in the next year may exceed 15 million vehicles, achieving an increase of nearly 15%.
"If the auto market's annual growth can be close to 20%, it is normal for the auto industry's production capacity and production to have a 30% to 35% surplus," Dong Yang, executive vice president and secretary general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, interviewed by reporters earlier. At the same time, it is believed that there is no need to worry too much about the problem of overcapacity in the automotive industry. “The most important thing to consider now is how to be stronger after being big.â€
A number of new policies are expected to be introduced next year
Companies, media, and industry insiders all agreed that this year's auto market, the 1.6L and lower purchase tax incentives for small-displacement passenger cars, and the automobile replacement policy to the countryside have contributed. This has also led to some concerns: This year's auto market is mainly driven by policies. Once the policy is terminated next year, will the auto market fall?
Dong Yang has repeatedly called for the relevant automobile industry policy to continue in the next year: "If the auto industry maintains a strong momentum of development, the policy must be stable. We strongly urge the relevant government departments to cherish the current excellent situation and maintain policy stability." On the scene of the car off the assembly line, Dong Yang once again called for the continuation of the importance of relevant industrial policies.
"The policy on car going to the countryside will surely continue to be implemented next year, and the trade-in policy will be expected to continue after the expiry of May next year," Zhang said.
“The auto industry adjustment and revitalization plan has only just begun. Ten policies have only been implemented in three,†said Luo Lei. “The halving of the purchase tax for autos to the countryside, trade-in replacements, and emission models of 1.6L and below is still under discussion. However, there will be a new policy for the automobile industry next year, of which the automobile consumer credit and second-hand car market policies are expected to be introduced."
Lang Xuehong emphasized the importance of auto consumer credit policies to reporters: “At present, only about 7% of consumers in the domestic market use consumer credit to purchase cars. This has a huge market space. The proportion of consumer credit in the US auto market is over 80%. The European market has also exceeded 50%. If the auto consumption credit policy is further improved next year, it will play an important role in driving automobile consumption."
“There is a great possibility that the automobile-to-country policy will continue in the next year. The old-for-new policy does not actually work,†Lang Xuehong said, confident that the next year’s implementation of several car consumption policies is full of confidence. “The small-displacement car purchase tax has even a discounted rate. It is possible to further increase."
However, analysts believe that energy-saving emission reduction is the focus of China's topic, which will directly affect the central government's policy formulation of the automotive industry. “The development of the automotive industry all over the world is accompanied by how to handle environmental friendly and resource-saving issues,†Dong Yang stressed. “Energy saving and emission reduction will be the main direction for the next step in the development of the auto industry, which will directly affect the health of the Chinese auto industry. development of."
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