What is the reason for the delay in the implementation of China's National IV emission standards?
What will be the impact on the industry if the implementation date of the China National IV emission standard is repeatedly delayed?
The implementation date of China's National IV emission standards has been repeatedly postponed. What have post-processing system companies done?
The National IV Emission Standard Delays the Competition of All Parties
The National IV emission policy, which was originally scheduled to be implemented on January 1, 2012, was postponed for various reasons.
The reasons for the postponement are many, first of all because China National Petroleum Corporation cannot supply bulk quantities of oil products meeting the national IV emission requirements (mainly PetroChina, Sinopec and other companies can hardly provide diesel fuel with sulfur content less than 50PPM).
This is followed by some differences between the Ministry of Environmental Protection and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.
Again, the automotive industry is not interested in implementing the National IV standard. At present, the price of the SCR after-treatment system is relatively high, and the acceptability of the SCR plant is relatively low. In particular, under the circumstances that the sales volume of the entire vehicle declines significantly in 2011, the forced implementation of the National IV is incompetent! Supporting such a higher-priced scr system will increase the cost of the entire vehicle.
Therefore, the postponement of the National IV emissions is, to a certain extent, the ultimate result of competing interests.
Domestic SCR post-processing system industry is still to be standardized
According to industry sources, the state will implement the Fourth National Emissions Policy in 2014, which is a full two years later than the implementation of the fourth national emission scheduled for January 1, 2012.
At present, SCR systems independently developed by a small number of companies in China have already been able to meet the corresponding emission regulations, such as Suzhou Pageli Co., Ltd., Anhui Aikelan Technology Co., Ltd., and Wuxi Kailong. Of course, there are many companies involved in the scr industry. There are inevitably some cases of fisheyes. Some companies use some methods to make products advertised, but the actual products are far from the requirements of the corresponding emission regulations. They play an important role in the entire industry. It's more like a spoiler's role. Although these companies may be strategically needed for this practice, it is undoubtedly harmful to others.
On the other hand, some companies have indeed made announcements based on their own strengths, but the durability of their products still needs time to test because their systems have very limited testing time in San Gao and extreme environments.
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It is inevitable for powerful companies to get involved in the increasingly fierce competition in the industry to eliminate shuffles.
The reality is often cruel. With a large number of OEMs and automakers participating in the R&D of SCR systems, the competition in the domestic market is becoming increasingly fierce. The entire industry will reshuffle and a large number of companies will withdraw from competition in this industry. It is understood that Bosch has launched a low-priced version of the SCR system is expected to price around 3,000 yuan! The sales price of Grundfos systems in North America is also less than RMB 3,000. Therefore, if domestic companies cannot control their costs within RMB 3,000, their products are obviously uncompetitive. Perhaps on the day when the National IV emissions are implemented, it will be found that the post-processing system industry is actually not as tempting as people think.
At present, Liberation, Dongfeng, Jirui heavy truck, Yuchai, Weichai, etc. have all invested funds to research and develop post-processing systems. Suzhou Parry and Yuchai established a good strategic partnership and will become Yuchai's main supplier. Weichai is currently "cooperating" with Zhejiang Yinlun Co., Ltd., and it is progressing well. In the near future, we may see an SCR system produced by Silver Wheel Co., Ltd. that is tagged with Weichai. At present, the post-processing system produced by the Silver Wheel Company has always been a mystery in the industry, but it is something that the Suzhou Pageli has seen occasionally.
Both of these production post-processing systems are based on the principle of air-assisted injection. The mechanism design is based on the nozzle measurement method. It is a very advanced design concept in the industry. In a sense it is a fusion of BOSCH and The product of Grundfos products has both specialties.
The fourth national emission policy has been postponed for the benefit of the pioneers
In fact, these powerful enterprises were not the first to develop R&D systems for post-processing systems. They were more like “waiters†at first. With the gradual maturation of markets and technologies, R&D of post-processing systems began. The choice of strategy will make these companies invincible, and the ultimate benefit will also be these OEMs and OEMs.
On the contrary, the renewed delay of the National IV emissions is a huge blow to those companies that entered the industry earlier. These companies often invest heavily in R&D of the SCR system and its related accessories. However, the market delay has caused these companies to accumulate The advantages are exhausted and it is difficult to persist in the market. Many small businesses may die out after such a long wait.
Even so, even if the market breaks out and the demand increases, it may not necessarily make money from the current point of view. No food, no pity! This is a brief summary of my current industry.
It is expected that in the next two years or so, some technical problems on the SCR system will be gradually broken. Then everyone will focus on how to reduce costs and improve durability. Among them, some companies will make the injection unit cost of the SCR system within 2,000 yuan.
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Solid SCR technology needs to be broken
It is reported that a few companies at home and abroad are developing solid SCR technology! The so-called solid SCR technology is to use a solid reducing agent (such as carbamate and other substances) to decompose and produce NH3 gas in high temperature environment, and then achieve and achieve emission regulations by measuring the amount of NH3 injection.
This design idea has some advantages and difficulties. The advantages are: First, the solid scr technology releases more NH3 gas for the same mass of 32.5% urea solution. Secondly, this technology does not require a high number of nozzles and does not require air-assisted injection to achieve good atomization. Third, this technology also brings certain advantages to thawing in low temperature environments. After all, the thermal energy required for solid heating is far less than that required for liquid heating.
Of course, this technology also has some technical difficulties. First, how to add the country's reducing agent. Second, how to accurately measure the amount of NH3 added is particularly critical! Third, whether this system has advantages in terms of cost is a key factor.
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