Excavator sales decline in April exceeded the previous year's export growth slowed down

April sales fell by nearly 40% month-on-month, with a decline exceeding that of previous years. In April 2011, 25 major excavator manufacturers sold 26,085 units domestically, a year-on-year increase of 19.37%. After hitting the highest monthly sales in the previous month, they fell 39.88% month-on-month in April; 100-,832 units sold in January-April, up from a year ago. 46.89%, continued higher growth. Based on past experience, sales are highest in the single month of the year in March of each year, and then fall month-on-month in the subsequent months. It is expected that the sequential decline will be around 15% in May and June. For the second half of the year, we believe that as the 12th Five-Year Plan and the construction of affordable housing and 4 trillion water conservancy investments will start one after another, excavator sales will maintain a 30% growth rate. It is estimated that the annual sales volume will be nearly 220,000 units, an increase of around 30% year-on-year.

Domestic brands have grown strongly, and the market share of foreign investment products has further declined. In January-April, domestic brands performed strongly. Domestic brands such as Sany, Yuchai, Liugong, Shanjianjian, and Xiagong increased by 134.5%, 61.7%, 78.1%, 206.6%, and 169.4% year-on-year, exceeding the overall level of the industry. Growth rate. The growth rate of Korean and Japanese brands was lower than that of the industry. Carter Heavy Industries, Atlas, and Volvo in Europe and the United States increased by 232.9%, 198.5%, and 98% year-on-year, and they performed well. The market share of domestic brands has increased dramatically, from 28.7% in 2010 to 34.7%. Foreign brands have dropped from 81.3% in 2011 to 75.3%, accelerating the substitution process for foreign products.

Foreign investment growth slowed down and market share declined. In April, Hyundai, Komatsu, Caterpillar and Volvo sold 2,843,3,253,1,789 and 1,409 vehicles respectively, an increase of 8.8%, 5.9%, 47% and 105.7% year-on-year respectively; Doosan Corporation and Hitachi Motor sold 2,779 and 1,980 units respectively. The market share of Doosan, Hyundai, Komatsu and Hitachi Construction Machinery declined significantly, down 3, 1.1, 1.6, and 3.2 percentage points year-on-year, respectively.

The market share of Trinity excavators has further increased, ranking second in the industry. In April, sales of national brands Sany, Yuchai, Shanjian Rebuild, Shanhe, Liugong, and Xiagong were approximately 3,112, 1,505, 999, 807, 708, and 362 units, an increase of 154%, 99%, 123.5%, and 116 respectively. % and 234%; market share 11.9%, 5.8%, 3.8%, 3.1%, 2.7%, and 1.4%, up 5.5, -0.6, 1.8, 0.4, -0.5, and -0.2 percentage points year-on-year, respectively, up by 1.2% from the previous quarter. -1.2, 0.3, 0.6, -0.5, and -1.8 percentage points. The market share of Trinity further increased, ranking second only to Komatsu and Doosan, ranking first among domestic brands.

Export growth slowed in April, and sales in the west were faster than in the east. From a geographical point of view, the year-on-year growth rate of exports in April slowed down sharply. In the first three months of the month, the export growth rate was about 100% year-on-year. In April, exports slowed to 26.8%. From January to April, 1,261 units were exported, a year-on-year increase of 72.3%, indicating that foreign demand continued to recover strongly. In April, domestic sales in the East, Central, and West regions grew by 11.8%, 14.4%, and 37.2% year-on-year, while sales in traditional provinces such as Beijing, Jiangsu, Anhui, and Zhejiang were down 14.9%, 14.3%, 12.6%, and 8% year-on-year. Sales in western provinces such as Guizhou, Qinghai, Xinjiang, and Gansu increased by 137%, 108%, 86%, 67.3%, and 59.2% year-on-year.

Market demand tends to medium and large tonnage excavator products. From the perspective of demand structure, the ton sales volume of 35-39.9T and 6-13T increased by 90% and 52%, respectively; followed by sales of 13-19T and 30-35T, which increased by 37% and 25.6% respectively year-on-year. The growth rate was higher than the industry average, and the sales of 1-5T products dropped by 29.8%, indicating that the market demand tends to medium and large tonnage high-end varieties, and the demand for small digging has slowed down.

Investment Strategy: We expect the sales revenue of the construction machinery industry to maintain a growth of 20-25% this year. It is recommended that the key allocation be benefited from the rapid development of farmland water conservancy construction and the dramatic increase in the accessories business. Shantui Group (000680), industry leader and internationalization Leading Sany Heavy Industry (600031), Zoomlion (000157), Xugong Machinery (000425), Liugong (000528).