During the long holidays, the outer disk Tokyo plastic rebounded, the main June contract on January 26 rushed 322.3 yen (ton price, the same below), then fell back to around 311.3 yen, compared with January 20 closing price of 314.5 yen Fell 3.2 yen. As a result, Shanghai Gelao finished lower after the holiday. In the early morning of January 30th, the contract price fell by 580 yuan from the closing price of January 20 to 27,360 yuan.
Domestically, data released by HSBC indicated that China’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) in January was 48.8%, a record high in three months, but still below the 50% of the watershed, indicating future economic growth. It will slow down further. The slowdown in domestic economic growth will lead to a slowdown in the growth of the automotive industry, which in turn will have a suppressive effect on natural rubber.
The International Monetary Fund's IMF has substantially lowered its global economic growth expectation. It is expected that the global economic growth rate will be 3.3% and 3.9% respectively in the next two years, which will affect the neutral bearishness of natural rubber. At the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and British Prime Minister Cameron expressed concern about the prospects of the euro debt crisis, and the possibility of Greece’s debt default has further increased. Fitch Ratings, one of the three major international rating agencies, announced on January 27 that it lowered the sovereign credit ratings of five euro-zone countries such as Italy and Spain, which will limit the rise of the euro and pose resistance to the rise of natural rubber.
However, there are also bullish factors in the market. The EU has announced that it will implement a series of sanctions against Iran, including the crude oil embargo, which will push up the price of international crude oil market, which will lead to a stronger synthetic rubber, which will in turn constitute a more significant role for natural rubber. In the natural rubber market, the Thai government has approved a budget of THB 15 billion (US$477 million) to purchase smoke-free film from plastic farmers, which has caused a steady increase in the spot price of the global natural rubber market.
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