The new round of restructuring in the domestic auto industry will start

Not surprisingly, GAC and Dongfeng, these "national" auto companies will attack everywhere, laying the ground for a new wave of mergers and acquisitions. Since the automotive industry was categorized as "overcapacity industries" in 2006, China has introduced a number of policies to accelerate industry mergers and reorganizations. In 2009, the competent department put forward the layout plan for the “four big and four small” future of the auto industry. In November of this year, nine ministries and commissions such as the National Development and Reform Commission announced that they plan to jointly formulate policies for further advancement, including the merger and reorganization of eight key industries including automobiles. All indications indicate that a new wave of restructuring in the domestic auto industry is beginning to take place.

Guangzhou Automobile and Dongfeng layout, power come from?

Following the alliance with Chery, GAC Group continued its strategic cooperation with foreign countries. Recently, Guangzhou Automobile Group, Zhongxing Automobile, and China Auto Parts Industry Company three parties signed a memorandum of strategic cooperation in Yichang, Hubei Province.

Similar to the previous alliance with Chery, GAC's alliance with ZTE and China Auto Parts Industry Co. did not involve equity cooperation. Both parties plan to cooperate in vehicle development, spare parts research and development, energy conservation and new energy vehicles, international business, logistics and transportation.

Obviously, such cooperation can be seen as a continuation of GAC’s “strategic alliance” form of cooperation. Although in the short-term, Zhongxing Automobile has not provided much help for Guangzhou Automobile, Guangzhou Automobile has thus realized its industrial layout in Central China.

Coincidentally. When GAC looked around for "cooperation" targets, another "national team" had no intention of keeping the east wind.

The rumors that Dongfeng Motor planned to reorganize Fuqi Group have been in place for a long time. Originally, it was planned to sign a cooperation framework agreement in September. Since December, there have been media reports that Dongfeng’s restructuring of Fuqi will be signed this month.

Under the pressure of public opinion, Dongfeng Motor had to issue a clarification announcement on December 19. The announcement stated that the company currently does not have any major reorganization including the contents mentioned in the above-mentioned hearsay, and there is no information that should be disclosed but not disclosed.

Although the above announcement has temporarily cooled down the reorganization rumors, Dongfeng Motor's wording leaves room for it, and it only calls it “currently”. This statement still makes the industry think about its reorganization.

As we all know, the restructuring of the Fuqi Group has always been tricky because it involves too many stakeholders; Guangzhou Automobile once lost its hand, and the signing date of Dongfeng this time repeatedly delayed, it also revealed the difficulty of this reorganization. Despite this, Dongfeng Motor has always been persevering.

In fact, no matter whether it is GAC Marrying ZTE or Dongfeng reorganization of Fuzhou, there is not much direct profit in terms of sales volume or profitability. So where does the motivation for their reorganization come from?

This year, the most intense industrial restructuring policies have been introduced.

Not surprisingly, GAC and Dongfeng, these "Ziqiufang" auto companies have attacked everywhere, and are planning for a new wave of mergers and acquisitions to seize the site in advance. As Zeng Qinghong, general manager of GAC Group stated, at this stage, for GAC, the base is the most important; while GAC has to do great, it must constantly expand its sphere of influence.

In fact, in recent years, China’s policy of encouraging mergers and reorganizations in the automobile industry is constantly increasing. Since the automotive industry was categorized as "overcapacity industries" in 2006, China has introduced a number of policies to accelerate industry mergers and reorganizations. In 2009, China's "Auto Industry Adjustment and Revitalization Plan" explicitly proposed to encourage SAIC, FAW, Dongfeng and Changan Automobile Group to conduct national mergers and reorganizations, and encouraged BAIC, Guangzhou Automobile, Chery and China National Heavy Duty Truck to carry out regional mergers and reorganizations. Strategic conception.

In 2010, the State Council issued the "Opinions of the State Council on Promoting Mergers and Reorganizations of Enterprises," which clearly will promote the implementation of strong and powerful alliances, mergers and acquisitions across regions, and increase industrial concentration.

At the beginning of this year, the State Council also issued the "Industrial Transformation and Upgrade Plan (2011-2015)", again proposing that by 2015, the industry concentration of the top 10 Chinese auto companies will increase from 82.2% in 2010 to over 90% in 2015. , Form 3 to 5 large-scale automobile enterprise groups with core competitiveness.

On November 9 this year, the Inter-ministerial Coordination Group of Enterprise M&A at the State Council held a meeting of heads of member companies and revealed that nine ministries and commissions including the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance, and the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the People's Republic of China are brewing relevant policies to promote the merger and reorganization of the eight key industries. The auto industry will bear the brunt of this. , is one of the key to promote the industry.

It can be seen that this year is the most intensive year since 2009 when China introduced the auto industry restructuring policy. The competent authorities plan to speed up the elimination of backward production capacity through new project approvals and increased financial support. Once the relevant policies are implemented, the restructuring of the domestic auto industry is expected to accelerate.

"National Team": Not Stronger, Destroyed

For the "GuoZiBao" auto companies, when a new wave of mergers and reorganizations starts, they will soon be able to incorporate small and medium-sized enterprises that have reached cooperation through strategic cooperation and alliances, with the fastest speed and lowest Costs to complete mergers and reorganizations.

In fact, the cooperation between GAC and ZTE is likely to continue in depth in the future. Today's strategic cooperation can be seen as a prelude to tomorrow's equity cooperation. Dongfeng and Fuqi Group's cooperation, the agreement also contains a gambling agreement, that is, Dongfeng's acquisition of 40% stake in Fugas, if Fuzhou production and sales in 2015 reached 300,000, Dongfeng has the right to acquire 20% of the shares of Fuqi, Become a major shareholder.

“M&A and restructuring are the future direction. GAC and Dongfeng have to be big, layout the whole country, and merging local small businesses is a common practice, and it is also a necessary path.” Zhang Zhiyong, a well-known automobile critic, said.

This year, the auto market has entered a micro-growth, which has actually created favorable conditions for the "Guozi" automobile company to carry out mergers and reorganizations. Ping An Securities analysts expect that the auto industry's annual growth rate will be between 5% and 10%. The differentiation of automobile companies in the future will become more apparent. The auto market will enter the stage of survival of the fittest and the strong will be the event of high probability.

Data shows that the market share of self-owned brands in October has reached the highest value this year, but its outlook is not optimistic. Dong Yang, executive vice president and secretary-general of the China Automobile Association, believes that this trend will not last long. In the coming period, the days of self-owned brands may be even more difficult, and the situation is even more difficult than it is now.

Shen Jun, Vice President of Roland Berger International Management Consulting, believes that if the government does not promote the structural adjustment of the automobile industry in the next 5 to 10 years, 2/3 of its own brands will die. In his view, the reorganization and integration of Chinese auto companies, the key factor in the adjustment of the auto industry structure lies in the government's promotion.


"4 big 4 small"

In 2010, the government promulgated the Detailed Rules for the Adjustment and Revitalization of the Automobile Industry. It is planned to form a large-scale enterprise group with two to three production and sales scales of more than 2 million vehicles through mergers and reorganizations, cultivating four to five production and sales scales exceeding one million vehicles. Automobile enterprise groups have reduced the number of automobile enterprise groups that account for more than 90% of the market share from the current 14 to less than 10.

The "Detailed Rules" clearly stipulates the list of companies that encourage mergers and reorganizations. Among them, SAIC, FAW Group, Dongfeng Motor Group and Changan Automobile Group (collectively referred to as the “Big Group”) are encouraged to implement mergers and reorganizations nationwide and support BAIC Group, Guangzhou Automobile Group, Chery Automobile, and Sinotruk (collectively, “Four Small Groups” Group ") implemented regional mergers and reorganizations.

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