This year, China’s auto market has a rare “double down†situation, namely: a decline from the same period of the previous year, and the month is lower than last month. This has led to widespread concern inside and outside the industry, and there has been a wave of worries, even the singer sound.
So, what happened to the Chinese auto market? What problems have you encountered in the development of the automotive industry? Based on interviews with experts and scholars inside and outside the industry, China Economic Net is striving to make a comprehensive, in-depth and thorough analysis, giving the industry and enterprises a real, healthy and useful reference. It also hopes to attract people's attention and participation, and promote and promote the whole. The benign development of the industry.
Today is the opening article of this series of reports, with a long time span, related to the macro economy, from the reality of the industry operation, to explore the future development of China's auto industry.
Zhao Yan, a senior autobot who cares about and studies the development of China's auto industry for more than 30 years, predicts that the Chinese auto industry still has a growth period of 5-10 years, and the growth rate should be around 10%, which is also consistent with China's macroeconomic development cycle. .
Xu Changming, director of the Resource Development Department of the National Information Center, also believes that the era of super-fast growth of passenger cars has ended, and the next step will be to enter the new normal of medium-to-high-speed growth, and will continue for about 10 years. It is speculated that the growth rate of the new normal is about 8%-10%, which is equivalent to 1.5 times the GDP growth rate.
In Western countries, 70%-80% of new holdings are in demand, and China's large demand is still new. This fully shows that China's auto market is still a booming emerging auto market.
A few days ago, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers released production and sales data for May, both production and sales fell year on year. The data showed that the automobile production in May was 1,964,200 units, a decrease of 5.56% from the previous month and a decrease of 0.58% from the same period of last year. The sales volume was 1,903,800 units, down 4.55% from the previous month and down 0.40% from the same period last year. In the first five months of this year, China's automobile production and sales were 1,024,400 and 1,046,200, an increase of 3.18% and 2.11% year-on-year, 0.94 percentage points and 0.66 percentage points lower than that of the first four months, down 6.19 percentage points and 6.86 compared with the same period of the previous year. percentage point.
In this regard, there have been a lot of different interpretations, such as "This is the first negative growth in the auto market in 15 years", "the industry turning point is prominent." In addition, a series of “official drop†led by Shanghai Volkswagen and the dealer inventory warning index of the red light hanging for 8 consecutive months. It triggered a voice of "singing bad" Chinese car market, "cold winter", "bear market", "mourning"...
Law reveals the nature of development Affected by the economic environment, the recent growth rate of China's auto industry has indeed slowed down. However, if judged according to this, the automobile industry will enter a cold winter and usher in an inflection point, which is somewhat irresponsible.
Zhao Yan, a senior autobot who pays attention to and studies the development of China's auto industry for more than 30 years, told the China Economic Net that "the movement of everything has its own cycle and it is characterized by regular fluctuations." He believes that the auto industry runs from high to low, about 6-7 years. Among them, it is about 2 years low, 2 years, 2 years high. From the data point of view, this year's growth rate is slightly lower than in previous years, but its essence is still growing. "It is expected that China's auto industry will still have a growth period of 5-10 years, and the growth rate should be around 10%, which is also consistent with China's macroeconomic development cycle."
Xu Changming, director of the Resource Development Department of the National Information Center, also said in an interview with the China Economic Net that the era of super-fast growth of passenger cars has come to an end and has become history. The next step will be to enter the new normal of medium and high speed growth, and will continue for about 10 years. It is speculated that the growth rate of the new normal is about 8%-10%, which is equivalent to 1.5 times the GDP growth rate.
According to his analysis, on the one hand, from the perspective of international law, the development of the automobile industry in various countries has experienced two high-speed periods. During the first period of super-high-speed growth, the average annual growth rate was 30%. During this period, the level of each country was roughly equal.
The second period is the medium-to-high-speed growth period, with an average annual growth rate of 20%. At this stage, China's auto industry growth rate is lower than the international average, about 13% to 15%. The time span is above average, Japan is 8 years, and China may be about 16 years.
Xu Changming also analyzed that under normal circumstances, the growth rate of the automobile industry should be doubled in five years. However, China's auto industry doubled in the two years of 2009 and 2010, and overdrafted the market ahead of schedule. In 2011, the growth rate declined rapidly, from 10% to 12% from 2011 to 2014. At present, it is about 8%-10%. In addition, China's economic growth is clearly divided into three gradients of east, middle and west, which also makes the high-speed growth period of the automobile industry higher than the international average from time to time.
On the other hand, the changes in the external environment of our economy and society have also led to this result. In recent years, China's GDP growth rate has undergone tremendous changes. From 2000 to 2007, GDP growth rate continued to climb to 14.2%, while it is currently around 7%, down 50% from 2007.
Therefore, it is not difficult to see that the fundamentals of China's auto industry are still growing, good, and this growth will continue for a long time.
The new car market is in the ascendant. In addition, the proportion of new cars in car ownership growth can also predict the sustainable development of the Chinese auto market.
Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics show that the number of civilian vehicles in China was 126.7414 million in 2013, 103.39 million in 2012, and 93.563 million in 2011. The number of newly registered civilian vehicles was 20,309,400 in 2013 and 1772.50 in 2012. 10,000 vehicles, in 2011, 16.2425 million vehicles.
From this calculation, the proportion of new cars in car ownership growth in 2013 was 86%, and in 2012 this figure was 89%.
Zhao Yan said that 70%-80% of the new holdings in Western countries are new demand, while China's large demand is still new. This also fully shows that China's auto market is still a booming emerging auto market.
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