Analysis of the Development Situation of China's Automobile Industry in 2008: The Growth Slowed Significantly


China Association of Automobile Manufacturers

In 2008, under the influence of a series of factors such as the macro-control, the catastrophic natural disasters, the disappearance of the stock market wealth effect, and the implementation of the National III emission standards, China’s automobile production and sales showed a trend of “high before and after low”, and ended the rapid growth in recent years. As a result, the economic growth rate of the industry has slowed down significantly, and the export growth has been greatly inhibited.

Obvious changes in production and sales throughout the year: the first half of the year saw a steady decline in the second half

In 2008, the production and sales of automobiles reached 9,343,100 units and 9,385,500 units respectively, which represented a year-on-year increase of 5.21% and 6.70% respectively. Compared with the same period of last year, the growth rate of production and sales fell by 16.81 percentage points and 15.14 percentage points, respectively. After falling below 10% for the first time since 1999.

From the perspective of the overall changes in automobile production and sales in 2008, the performance in the first half of the year was stable, and the decline in production and sales after the third quarter increased, especially in November and December, the year-on-year rapid decline in production and sales, resulting in negative growth in both sales and sales in the fourth quarter, further accelerating the year The growth of production and sales declined. From the quarterly comparison of production and sales, the sales in the first and second quarters increased year-on-year. In the third quarter, the automobile output increased year-on-year, but the sales volume decreased year-on-year. In the fourth quarter, both production and sales decreased year-on-year.

The proportion of passenger cars increased compared to the previous year

In 2008, passenger car production and sales amounted to 6,737,700 units and 6,675,600 units, a year-on-year increase of 5.59% and 7.27%. Compared with 2007, the growth rate dropped by 16.35 percentage points and 14.41 percentage points respectively. Although the growth rate has declined rapidly, the proportion of passenger vehicles still shows a steady increase. Compared with passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles were sluggish, with 2,607,400 units and 2,624,900 units sold, a year-on-year increase of 4.24% and 5.25%, which was lower than the industry's 0.97 percentage points and 1.45 percentage points; compared with 2007, the growth rate It dropped by 17.97 percentage points and 17.00 percentage points, which was slightly lower than the previous year.

Judging from the subdivision of automobiles, cars, trucks and crossover passenger vehicles continued to rank the top three. In 2008, the above three varieties sold 5.049 million, 1.604 million, and 1.106 million, respectively, which accounted for sales of automobiles. 53.80%, 17.49% and 11.34%; compared with the previous year, the share increased by 0.04, 0.24 and 0.10 percentage points respectively.

From the point of view of the contribution of the growth of all major automobile varieties, the contribution of passenger car production and sales growth remained the highest, reaching 77.08% and 77.77%, respectively, 5.45 percentage points and 6.57 percentage points higher than the previous year; commercial vehicles showed a certain decline. From the perspective of subdivision models, the growth in production and sales of basic passenger cars (cars) remained the highest, reaching 51.80% and 54.39%, respectively, but down 6.12% and 2.61 percentage points from the previous year; freight cars, crossover passenger cars The contribution of sports and multi-purpose passenger vehicles (SUVs) is higher than that of the previous year; the contribution of passenger cars and semi-trailer tractors to production and sales growth is relatively low, which shows a certain decline compared with the previous year; multi-functional passenger vehicles (MPVs). ) The contribution of non-integrated trucks and non-completed vehicles to the growth of production and sales growth is negative and their performance is even weaker.

The performance of passenger cars in various major markets varied: The growth rate of cars and SUVs slowed down significantly. The demand for MPV continued to shrink. The crossover passenger car was slightly better than the previous year.

— The demand for basic passenger cars (sedans) has slowed down significantly, and the market landscape has undergone major changes.

In 2008, sales of basic passenger cars (sedans) were 5.0469 million, an increase of 6.78% year-on-year. Compared with 2007, the growth rate dropped by 16.68 percentage points. Affected by unfavorable factors such as oil price fluctuations, consumption tax reform and sluggish stock market, consumers’ enthusiasm for purchasing large-displacement cars has decreased compared with the previous year. According to statistics, in the 1.6-liter or above variety, the 2.5-3.0 litre series only maintained growth, while other varieties showed declines to varying degrees, of which the 3.0-liter or higher variety had the most significant decline. It is worth mentioning that the varieties below 1.6L are still the absolute dominant force in the market, with a total sales volume of 3.1059 million units, a year-on-year increase of 14.01%, and the market share has increased compared with the previous year. In addition, the variety with a displacement less than 1.0 liters ended its downward trend in the previous year, showing a slight increase, with sales of 258,300 units, a year-on-year increase of 2.60%.

In 2008, a total of 1,308,200 self-owned brand cars were sold, which accounted for 25.92% of the total sales of cars. The market share dropped by 0.43 percentage points from the previous year. Among the independent brands, BYD’s various brands performed better overall, among which F3 sales ranked second only to QQ in the sales volume of independent brands, and the market performance of new listings was also outstanding, which was obviously better than other new listings. Own brand. In addition, self-owned brands with sales volume of more than 100,000 units include QQ and Xiali. Compared with the previous year, the growth rate of QQ demand has slowed down significantly, and Xiali demand has declined. Among foreign brands, Japanese cars performed relatively well, with a total of 1.5560 million vehicles sold, accounting for 30.83% of the total sales of cars. The market share increased 1.92 percentage points from the previous year; the top three sellers are Accord, Corolla, and Camry. Sales of 486,600 vehicles accounted for 31.40% of the total sales of Japanese cars. Compared with the previous year, the German and Korean car share has also increased, with sales of 1.0265 million units and 361,700 units respectively, accounting for 20.34% and 7.17% of the total sales of cars. Compared with the previous year, the market share has increased by 0.38. Percentage point and 1.25 percentage points. The share of the American Department and the Law Department decreased slightly, with sales of 615,300 units and 171,800 units respectively, accounting for 12.19% and 3.53% of the total sales of cars. Compared with the previous year, the market share decreased by 1.96 percentage points and 0.85 percentage points.

In 2008, from the perspective of major manufacturers of cars, the top ten car manufacturers were: FAW-Volkswagen, Shanghai Volkswagen, Shanghai GM, FAW Toyota, Dongfeng Nissan, Chery, Guangzhou Honda, Beijing Hyundai, Geely and Changan Ford. Compared with the same period of last year, sales volume of Shanghai GM, Chery and Changan Ford showed a declining trend. Other companies maintained growth at different levels, and Beijing Hyundai presented rapid growth. In 2008, the above-mentioned ten companies sold a total of 3,278,900 vehicles, accounting for 65% of the total sales of cars.

— The overall performance of the MPV market was sluggish. The only small-displacement products with 1.6 liters or less maintained growth.

In 2008, the performance of the multi-function passenger vehicle (MPV) market was relatively low, with a total of 197,400 vehicles sold, a year-on-year decrease of 12.56%. Among the major varieties of MPV, 1.6 liters or more of each series of products showed a different degree of decline, of which 1.6 liters <displacement ≤ 2.0 liters sold 50,900 units, a year-on-year decrease of 3.54%; 2.0 liters <displacement ≤ 2.5 liters series of sales of 99,300 Vehicles, down 16.83% year-on-year; 2.5 liters <displacement ≤ 3.0 liters sold 28,800 units, a year-on-year decrease of 26.31%. Most of the large-displacement MPVs are official and commercial vehicles, which are most affected by the macro environment. Contrast with the above-mentioned dominant varieties, the small MPV market below 1.6 liters performed well, with a total sales of 18,400 units, a year-on-year increase of 28.11%, and a market share increase of 2.98 percentage points from the previous year.

In 2008, its own brand MPV still accounted for the largest proportion, with a total of 103,300 sold, accounting for 52% of the total sales of MPV. Among the self-owned brands, Ruifeng, Fengxing, and Garris ranked among the top three; compared with the previous year, Garrett showed a slight increase, and Swiss Wind and popularity declined. Among foreign brands, the brands that sold over 10,000 vehicles were: Buick GL8, Odyssey and Touran. Compared with the previous year, only Touran maintained steady growth, and the GL8 and Odyssey dropped more significantly.

— The market demand for sport utility vehicles (SUVs) is generally better than that of the entire industry, and the growth rate in the second half of the year has dropped rapidly.

In the second half of the year, the automotive market environment has changed, and the high-speed growth of SUVs in the first half of the year has also been affected, but the growth rate is still higher than the industry average. As of the end of 2008, SUVs sold a total of 447,700 units, an increase of 25.28% year-on-year; compared with the same period of last year, the growth rate dropped by 24.81 percentage points, and the growth rate was 18.01 percentage points higher than that of the passenger vehicle industry. In the main varieties of SUV, the following varieties accounted for the largest proportion of 2.0 liters, a total of 21.34 million sales, accounting for 47.67% of total sales of SUV; 2.0 ~ 2.5 liters series ranks second, a total of 180,900 sales, accounting for 40.41 total SUV sales %; 2.5 liters or more of the variety of the proportion is not large, only as a supplement to the SUV segment, a total of 53,400 vehicles sold, accounting for 11.93% of total SUV sales.

Among the major brands of sport utility vehicles (SUVs), the Honda CRV has always dominated the market in 2008, and Hafer and Tiggo’s demand for excellent performance in the previous year has sharply decreased. In addition, Tucson, Leopard, Land, Hacker, Cheetah, Prado, Santa Fe, Paladin, and Ruiying are the brands that sell more than 10,000 cars. Compared with the previous year, the Tucson and Cheetah markets have performed slightly weakly, and other varieties have shown rapid growth. increase.

From the point of view of SUV manufacturers, the top five sales companies are: Dongfeng Honda, Great Wall, Chery, Beijing Hyundai and Dongfeng Yueda Kia. Compared with the same period of last year, the growth of Dongfeng Honda and Dongfeng Yueda Kia was relatively significant, the growth rate of Chery was significantly slowed, and the demand of the Great Wall and Beijing Hyundai declined slightly. As of the end of 2008, the above-mentioned five companies sold a total of 267,700 vehicles, accounting for 60% of the total SUV sales.

--- Cross-type passenger vehicles continued to maintain steady growth, with cumulative sales exceeding one million for the first time.

In 2008, under the overall downturn in the automotive market, crossover passenger vehicles continued to grow steadily, becoming the only vehicles with growth rates in 2008; cumulative sales exceeded 1 million vehicles for the first time, reaching 1,106,600 units, an increase of 7.67% year-on-year. It accounted for 15.74% of the total sales of passenger cars, accounting for 11.34% of the total sales of cars. After ranking in the ranks of cars and trucks, it ranked third. Among the major manufacturers of crossover passenger vehicles, SAIC-GM-Wuling ranked first in terms of sales growth. Chongqing Chang'an (excluding Nanjing Chang'an) and Hafei ranked second and third respectively, with sales volume declining from the previous year. In 2008, the above three companies sold a total of 876,000 vehicles, accounting for 82% of the total cross-selling passenger vehicle sales.

The commercial vehicle market is more affected by the macro situation.

———The overall demand for the truck market is growing slowly. The demand for heavy-duty trucks and semi-trailer tractors has shrunk sharply in the second half of the year.

In 2008, the freight market was greatly affected by changes in the macroeconomic situation. In the first half of the year, the market maintained inertial growth in the previous year. In the second half of the year, with the full implementation of the national standard, the increase in new car costs and the early release of purchasing power, as well as changes in international and domestic economic conditions, the overall freight market in 2008 showed a trend of “high before and after low”. . A total of 1.6601 million vehicles were sold in the year, an increase of 8.19% year-on-year; the growth rate was down by 6.92% compared with the previous year. Including: In the first half of the year, trucks (excluding non-integrated vehicles) sold a total of 946,600 units, and sold 694,400 units in the second half of the year, a decrease of 252,600 units over the first half of the year; and trucks with non-completed vehicles (truck chassis) sold 449,600 units, a year-on-year decrease of 0.17%. Compared with the previous year, the end of rapid growth turned into a downturn.

Among the major types of goods vehicles (including non-integrated vehicles), medium-duty trucks have seen an end to growth, showing a significant decline; the sales growth of heavy-duty trucks and light trucks has accelerated, but they have still increased year-on-year; the performance of minivans has been outstanding, an increase of 18.88% year-on-year; What is mentioned is that the sales volume of the semi-trailer tractor market showed a slight increase year-on-year. In 2008, among the major manufacturers of trucks (including non-integrated vehicles), the market concentration of heavy, medium and minivans was still significantly higher than that of light trucks. As of the end of 2008, the overall share of heavy, medium, light and micro enterprises in the top five companies reached 77.12%, 75.78%, 59.56% and 74.94%, respectively.

— The demand for passenger car market slowed down significantly in the second half of the year, and the light bus market was even more sluggish.

In 2008, the growth rate of passenger car industry demand has slowed down significantly. In the first half of the year, passenger cars (including non-integrated vehicles) sold a total of 187,200 units, an increase of 14.44% year-on-year; in the second half of the year, it sold 153,400 units, which represented a decrease of 33,800 units from the first half of the year; and annual sales of 345,600 units, a year-on-year decrease of 2.54%. Among them, the sales of passenger vehicles (excluding non-integrated vehicles) increased year-on-year, but the growth rate began to fall; the sales of non-completed passenger vehicles decreased year-on-year. Among the major varieties of passenger vehicles (including non-integrated vehicles), the demand growth of large and medium-sized passenger cars has obviously declined; the demand for light passenger cars has decreased year-on-year, which has become the main driving force for the overall decline of passenger cars.

Judging from the production companies of passenger vehicles (including non-integrated vehicles), the concentration of light buses is the highest, and that of large and medium-sized passenger cars is slightly lower. In 2008, the overall market share of large, medium and light passenger vehicles of the top five manufacturers reached 58.64%, 59.30% and 72.22%, respectively.

The key enterprises in the industry are faced with severe challenges: The growth of production and sales declines obviously The export growth is seriously hindered The profit shows negative growth

The market share of the top ten companies in the industry continued to maintain a high share of more than 80%, and the sales growth rate of most of the enterprises dropped significantly year-on-year.

In 2008, the top ten sales companies were: SAIC, FAW, Dongfeng, Chang'an, BAIC, GAC, Chery, Brilliance, Hafei and Geely. Among these ten companies, SAIC, FAW, Dongfeng, Chang’an and BAIC still dominated the industry and both saw year-on-year growth. Among them, BAIC’s growth performance was outstanding; other companies showed a certain decline, with SAIC, FAW and Chang’an rapidly falling. The growth rate of Guangzhou Automobile and Geely significantly slowed down. As an independent brand enterprise, Chery and Brilliance have shown a certain decline, and Hafei has been stumbling at a low speed. In 2008, the above-mentioned ten companies sold a total of 7.821 million automobiles, which accounted for 83% of the total sales of automobiles. The market share was roughly the same as that of the previous year.

———The export growth momentum of auto vehicle manufacturers has rapidly declined, and the performance in the second half of the year has been the most sluggish.

From the perspective of the export of auto vehicle manufacturers in 2008, the export momentum continued to maintain rapid growth in the first half of the year, but since the second half of the year, the export market has shrunk, and orders for export companies have fallen sharply in the fourth quarter. In 2008, total vehicle manufacturers exported 618,900 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 12.70%. Compared with the first half of the year, the growth rate slowed by 49.30 percentage points. Among them, the passenger vehicle exports were 347,600, an increase of 23.09% year-on-year, and the growth rate slowed by 60.28 percentage points compared with the first half of the year; commercial vehicle exports were 270,300, an increase of 1.67% year-on-year, and the growth rate slowed by 39.37 as compared with the first half of the year. Percentage.

What needs to be pointed out in particular is that despite the sharp decline in the export momentum of the entire industry, the major export companies still maintain a relatively strong vitality. Among them, Chery Automobile exports continue to rank first among all companies and is the only export vehicle brand with more than 100,000 vehicles. The companies ranked second to tenth are: Great Wall, Guangzhou Automobile, Dongfeng, Geely, Chang'an, Beiqi, Hafei, FAW and Lifan. Compared with the previous year, Changan, BAIC, Hafei and FAW have declined, and other companies have taken different degrees. Growth, of which Dongfeng growth rate is still the fastest. In 2008, the above-mentioned ten companies exported 468,100 vehicles, accounting for 76% of the total vehicle exports. In addition, there are more than 10,000 vehicles exported by JAC, SAIC, Brilliance, CNHTC, Shaanxi Automobile, and Gonow; compared with the previous year, SAIC and CNHTC have shown a decline, other companies have grown significantly, and Shaanxi Auto's growth rate has increased. To be significant.

— The growth rate of the major economic indicators of the industry has dropped significantly, and the profits of key enterprises have decreased year-on-year.

In 2008, according to the Express News of major economic indicators for 11376 large-scale enterprises in the automotive industry during the period from January to November, although the major economic indicators kept growing, they were all lower than the growth rate in the same period of last year. Among them, the cumulative total industrial output value of 2.315495 trillion yuan, an increase of 17.59%, the growth rate slowed down 14.39% year-on-year; cumulative industrial output value of 2.276654 trillion yuan, an increase of 18.72%, a year-on-year slowdown of 13.43 percentage points; cumulative realization of the main The business income was 2.276623 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.12%, and the growth rate slowed down 12.06% year-on-year; the accumulated total profit was 130.955 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.05%, and the growth rate was 54.14 percentage points lower than the same period last year.

In addition, the economic growth of key enterprises in the industry also showed a large decline. According to the report on the major economic indicators of 19 key automakers (groups) of the automotive industry from January to November in 2008, the growth rate of the economic operation of the key auto industry (group) of the automobile industry has slowed down. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate for each month has shown a continuous downward trend. The profitability fell significantly.

Looking forward to 2009, China's auto industry will still face enormous challenges. The development of the auto industry will depend more on changes in global and domestic economic conditions, as well as the government's efforts to take measures to rescue the market.

View related topics: increase millions every year, analyze the production and sales of automobiles (commercial vehicles)


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